Scenario Simulation for the Urban Carrying Capacity Based on System Dynamics Model in Shanghai, China

Shanghai, as an international metropolis, has ever-growing population and ongoing economic development, so the pressure on natural resources environment is continually increased. How to ease tension among economy, environment? The sustainable green development of Shanghai been focus public government. Urban carrying capacity involves complex interactions population, economy environment. Understanding balance between these elements important scientific issue for in Shanghai. For this purpose, urban ecological was emphasized, capacity, GDP (Gross Domestic Product), index added value secondary industry were investigated measure capacity. dynamic changes GDP, during 2018–2035 simulated using a system dynamics model including three subsystems 66 variables from macroscopic perspective. Five scenarios employed simulation, namely status-quo scenario, economic-centric high-tech-centric environment-centric scenario coordinated equilibrium scenario. simulation results indicated that potential will decline by 2035, indicators also be at low level under which inferior option, while environment, growth all perform excellently, best option. Therefore, may improved increasing investment research, expenditure environmental protection improving recycling efficiency waste solid water. provide insights into city.